There is still room for the NPC and CPPCC Market-crycry

The NPC and CPPCC market there is still room for the two stock markets traded after the Spring Festival, the domestic A share market has maintained a gradual rebound trend, although the oscillation of yesterday’s market performance, but in the external disk market risk appetite overall rise in the background, the Shanghai and Shenzhen two city turnover remained above 550 billion yuan. After the festival, the stock market transaction situation gradually improved, while the two sessions close to bring policy expectations support, it is expected that the short-term market will continue to maintain a pattern of more. However, after the Spring Festival, the rhythm of the open market operation of the central bank [micro-blog] has changed, and the impact of liquidity on the market sentiment needs to be concerned. The recent blue chip sector underpinning the market supply side reform speed exceeded market expectations, the policy on both aspects: first, to accelerate inventory, the steel coal industry have been released to production target, the introduction of the new deal to resolve the pressure on the stock of real estate. Second, reduce the cost of financing to guide industrial restructuring, in which financial instruments will play an important role. On the one hand, through the wide credit, increase the proportion of direct financing and other ways to reduce leverage, on the other hand, through asset securitization revitalize the stock of funds, improve cash flow situation. In the medium and long term, whether the reform can achieve the purpose of adjusting structure and promoting growth needs the landing of actual policies, and the performance improvement of relevant industries is fulfilled on schedule. The long-term effect of the reform should be viewed in the long run, and we need to focus on the promotion of relevant policies and the standards of each node in the year. From the current progress, the overall progress of the promotion of good speed. We believe that the reform will continue to provide economic support, the blue chip sector will also benefit underpinning the market. With the two sessions approaching, the policy of intensive introduction of all parties, to inventory and broad credit will improve the long-term profitability of enterprises, contribute to valuation repair, the market rebound stage. Good overall performance estimates as of last Sunday, the A shares of Listed Companies in 2064 annual report published notice, the notice is a slight increase, losses, Yu Ying, expected by a total of 1275 companies notice, profitable companies accounted for all 61.77% of the company released results notice. In terms of industry, the top five industries are banking, transportation, communications, public utilities, non bank finance and leisure services. Among the 78 companies that have published annual reports, the top five in revenue growth are computers, integrated, non bank finance, machinery and electronics, and the top five industries are non silver finance, non-ferrous metals, communications, electrical equipment and light manufacturing. Overall, the overall performance is expected to be good, coupled with the recent supply side reform process and real estate and other favorable policies introduced, the market valuation is expected to rise. Pay attention to the rhythm of monetary policy the central bank open market yesterday a net return of 260 billion yuan this week, is still 440 billion yuan reverse repurchase expires. Before and after the Spring Festival, the central behavior to deal with seasonal financial pressure, through a large number of open market operations to release liquidity, stabilize the market. The steady rise of the RMB exchange rate eased the liquidity pressure after the spring festival. Although the total scale of the central bank’s operation in the open market has declined, the operation rhythm has changed, instead of the daily operation to stabilize the market. From near.

全国两会行情仍有空间   沪深两市交投活跃      春节过后,国内A股市场维持了逐步反弹的走势,虽然昨日市场表现振荡,但在内外盘市场风险偏好整体回升的背景下,沪深两市成交金额维持在5500亿元之上。节后股市成交情况逐步好转,同时全国两会临近带来政策预期支撑,预计短期市场仍将维持偏多格局。不过,春节过后央行[微博]公开市场操作的节奏发生变化,需要关注流动性方面对市场情绪的影响。   蓝筹板块托底市场   近期供给侧改革推进速度超出市场预期,政策围绕两方面展开:第一,加速去库存,钢铁煤炭行业相继发布去产能目标,房地产出台新政化解库存压力。第二,降低融资成本引导产业转型,其中金融工具将发挥重要作用。一方面通过宽信贷,增加直接融资比例等方式降低杠杆,另一方面通过资产证券化盘活存量资金,改善现金流情况。   中长期来看,改革能否达到调结构、促增长的目的需要实际政策的落地情况,相关行业的业绩改善如期兑现。改革的长期效果要以长远眼光看待,年内我们需要重点跟踪相关政策的推进和各个节点的达标情况。从目前进展来看,整体进程推进速度良好。我们认为,改革将持续给经济提供支撑,蓝筹板块也将因此受益托底市场。   随着全国两会临近,各方政策密集出台,去库存以及宽信贷中长期将改善企业盈利能力,有助于估值修复,市场出现阶段性反弹。   业绩预估整体良好   截至上周日,A股上市公司中已有2064家公布年报预告,其中预告类型为略增、扭亏、预盈、预增的公司共计1275家,预告盈利的公司数占所有公布业绩预告公司的61.77%。分行业来看,盈利数占公布预告数排名前五的行业是银行、交通运输、通信、公用事业、非银金融和休闲服务。已公布年报的78家公司中,收入增长排名前五的行业是计算机、综合、非银金融、机械设备和电子,盈利增长排名前五的行业是非银金融、有色金属、通信、电气设备和轻工制造。   整体来看,业绩预估情况整体良好,加上近期供给侧改革进程推进和房地产等利好政策的出台,市场估值预期上升。   关注货币政策节奏   昨日央行公开市场净回笼2600亿元,本周仍有4400亿元逆回购到期。春节前后,央行为应对季节性的资金压力,通过大量的公开市场操作释放流动性稳定市场。人民币汇率春节之后的企稳回升使得流动性压力得到缓解。虽然节后央行在公开市场操作的总规模有所下降,但操作节奏出现变化,改为每日操作来稳定市场。从近期央行相关表态中看出,主基调并不会轻易改变。同时央行去年开始着手构建利率走廊,本月下调MLF利率水平的动作显示出引导资金利率下行的方向未改。   因此,年内流动性维持稳定的主基调未改,这将从整体上支撑市场估值水平,慢牛格局延续。短期来看,关注央行公开市场操作是否带来短期大量净回笼压力,并因此引发资金利率水平的短期波动。   综上所述,我们依然维持市场结构性慢牛的预判不改。短期在内外盘风险偏好回升的氛围下,加上国内政策预期支撑,市场存在反弹动能。密切关注市场流动性变化和全国两会前后相关政策预期。   (作者单位:中信期货)   版权声明:本网所有内容,凡来源:“期货日报”的所有文字、图片和音视频资料,版权均属期货日报所有,任何媒体、网站或个人未经本网协议授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发布 发表。已经本网协议授权的媒体、网站,在下载使用时必须注明"稿件来源:期货日报",违者本网将依法追究责任。相关的主题文章: