The trend of the RMB exchange rate to stabilize monetary policy or still relaxed space – Sohu news-www.75zzz.com

The trend of the RMB exchange rate to stabilize monetary policy or remain relaxed on the first day of trading space – Sohu news daily economic news reporter Deng Liping after the Spring Festival, the RMB exchange rate from a strong surge in onshore RMB, both exceeded 6.50, of which 10 years in its biggest one-day gain in rmb. In the industry view, from the recent situation at home and abroad, the RMB has become stable in the short term, and after the gradual stabilization of the RMB exchange rate, the central bank’s monetary policy easing space may open. Exchange rate factors have affected monetary policy before, the industry is expected to drop before the Spring Festival is expected to be higher, but the RRR is not scheduled, the central bank through the open market and innovative monetary tools to release liquidity. In February 15th, the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations of 10 billion yuan and 7 days in the open market. And the last week before the Spring Festival (February 1st ~2 6), the central bank through the open market to net volume reached 440 billion yuan. From the beginning of January to the Spring Festival, the central bank through open market to the market once the net amount invested more than $16000, the number and scale of all record. According to the outflow of the central bank forum content, the central bank is reluctant to drop, mainly due to the exchange rate considerations. In the central bank issued the "fourth quarter of 2015 monetary policy implementation report" (hereinafter referred to as "report") shows that the central bank clearly put forward the relationship between the exchange rate and monetary policy. The central bank said that under the open macro pattern, the monetary policy faces the restriction of exchange rate "hard constraint" and the "strong contrast" of the international price of assets. Domestic monetary policy is too loose, easy to lead to devaluation pressure. "From the central bank balance sheet, to reserve tool as an example, if reduce the statutory deposit reserve ratio, reserve liabilities in other depository corporations in the corresponding deposit into excess reserves, so as to increase the liquidity of the banking system, promote the market interest rates down, plus the drop signal meaning strong, may to strengthen the policy easing is expected, these in certain circumstances may lead to devaluation pressures, increased capital outflows, foreign exchange reserves decline." Mention in the report. Everbright Securities chief economist Xu Gao mentioned in the research report, in the central bank’s view, the goal of stabilizing the RMB exchange rate suppression of domestic monetary easing space. At present, the central bank is trying to stabilize the RMB exchange rate, the domestic similar lowering interest rate easing policy is difficult to launch. This should be the day before the Spring Festival the central bank would rather use the size of the open market operation to release liquidity, rather than reason. There is no sustained depreciation basis but from the recent situation, the trend of the RMB has gradually stabilized. Before the Spring Festival, the RMB rose against the dollar for several consecutive trading days, while the RMB against the dollar in the onshore market rose by more than 800 basis points in February 15th. Southern China a bank analysts to the "daily economic news" reporter said, during the Spring Festival, Japan, Sweden announced the implementation or strengthening of negative interest rates, the United States Yellen dovish than expected speech, leading to the relative advantage of RMB to appear during the Spring Festival, so the offshore market of RMB against the U.S. dollar rose more than 700 basis points. And from.

人民币汇率走势趋稳 货币政策或仍存放松空间-搜狐新闻  每日经济新闻记者 邓莉苹   春节后的首个交易日,人民币汇率强势飙升,离在岸人民币双双突破6.50,其中在岸人民币创10年最大单日涨幅。   在业内人士看来,从近期的国内外形势来看,人民币短期已经趋于稳定,而在人民币汇率逐步稳定之后,央行的货币政策放松空间可能会打开。   汇率因素曾影响货币政策   此前,业内对春节前降准预期较高,但降准并未如期而至,央行则通过公开市场和创新型货币工具来释放流动性。   2月15日,央行在公开市场进行了100亿元7天逆回购操作。而春节前的最后一周(2月1日~2月6日),央行通过公开市场向净投放量达到4400亿元。从1月初至春节前,央行通过公开市场向市场净投放量一度超过16000亿,次数和规模都创下历史记录。   根据此前流出的央行座谈会内容,央行不愿意降准主要是出于汇率的考虑。在央行发布的《2015年第四季度货币政策执行报告中》(下称《报告》)显示,央行非常明确的提出了汇率和货币政策的关系。央行称,在开放宏观格局下,货币政策面临着汇率“硬约束”以及资产价格国际间“强对比”的约束。本国货币政策过于宽松容易导致本币贬值压力。   “从央行资产负债表上看,以准备金工具为例,若降低法定存款准备金率,负债方中其他存款性公司存款中的法定准备金会相应转化为超额准备金,从而增加银行体系的流动性,促进市场利率下行,加上降准信号意义较强,有可能强化对政策放松的预期,这些在一定情况下都可能导致本币贬值压力加大,资本流出增多,外汇储备下降。”《报告》中提到。   光大证券首席经济学家徐高在研报中提到,在央行看来,稳定人民币汇率的目标抑制了国内货币宽松的空间。在当前央行正着力稳定人民币汇率的时候,国内类似降准降息的宽松政策难以推出。这应当是春节前央行宁可使用天量规模的公开市场操作来释放流动性,也不愿降准的主要原因。   不存在持续贬值基础   不过,从近期的情况来看,人民币走势已逐步趋稳。春节前,人民币兑美元连续多个交易日上涨,而在岸市场的人民币兑美元在2月15日也上涨超过800个基点。   华南地区一位银行分析人士对《每日经济新闻》记者表示,春节期间,日本、瑞典宣布实施或强化负利率,美国耶伦鸽派不及预期的言论,导致人民币的相对优势得以显现,所以春节期间离岸市场人民币兑美元上涨了700多个基点。而且从宏观的数据来看,目前人民币的走势也已经趋于稳定。   央行行长周小川近日在接受媒体采访时表示,当前中国国际收支状况良好,国际竞争力仍很强,跨境资本流动处于正常区间,人民币汇率对一篮子货币保持了基本稳定,还有所升值,不存在持续贬值的基础。   2月15日,海关总署公布的进出口数据显示,1月份我国贸易顺差4062亿元,扩大12.2%。澳新中国团队认为,中国贸易顺差升至历史新高显示中国继续保持较大经常账户顺差,这也将帮助缓解资本外流以及人民币贬值的压力。   海通证券姜超、顾潇潇等在研报中表示,在央行“不可能三角”中,此前央行为稳定汇率贬值,被迫部分放弃了利率政策,国内降准降息屡次延后,宽松受限也使得国内资本市场的表现受到抑制。如果人民币汇率短期稳定,那么央行利率政策的空间会短期打开。   徐高认为,“去年12月以来,资本出现大幅流出,然而央行持续通过短期公开市场操作,而非降准释放流动性,主要是考虑到降准释放的较强宽松信号会加大货币贬值压力。而随着人民币贬值压力的减轻,货币政策宽松空间将加大。虽然近期稳汇率依然是政策主要矛盾,降准概率不大,但考虑到目前实体经济的下行压力较大,资本流出也需要降准释放长期流动性对冲,随着人民币贬值压力减轻,我们仍然相信今年上半年央行会进一步降准。”   前述银行分析人士也表示,随着人民币汇率逐步企稳,央行的降息降准也将迎来空间。央行此前通过公开市场释放的流动性将在3月份大量到期,而4月份还是财政存款上缴时期,预计央行的降准可能会在这些时段。相关的主题文章: