NPC report part of the plate and regional economic collapse risk still exist-yo te amo

The National People’s Congress report: economic collapse mode and plate area part of the decline in risk is still people’s Congress report: economic decline and collapse mode of plate area there is still a risk of the China Times reporter Chen Yanpeng Beijing reported that the national economy has entered a new norm, some provinces GDP fell cliff style. In particular, the nominal growth rate of GDP in Shanxi and the northeast is lower than the actual growth rate, and it falls into substantial deflation." Renmin University of China School of economics professor Fan Zhiyong said, "the local economic growth not only led to a protracted slowdown in income growth slowed and even the long-term income absolute decline, local government revenue will also decline, weakening the ability of local governments to implement macroeconomic policy." In September 14th, the "macro economic forum of China" monthly data analysis held by the national development and Strategic Research Institute of Renmin University of China, the Institute of economics and the China integrity credit management Limited by Share Ltd was held at Renmin university. Fan Zhiyong issued the macroeconomic monthly data analysis report on behalf of the research group. The report points out that the areas where economic growth and fiscal revenue are facing collapse are also the most important areas in the "three go, one down, one subsidy" task. In this context, we should pay more attention to the problem of local regional financial revenue collapse, especially the livelihood problems caused by the sudden change of grassroots fiscal revenue. It is suggested to establish a fiscal assistance system at the grassroots level during the transition period. The National Bureau of statistics released a batch of data on the day before. A number of data show that China’s macro-economy continues to stabilize before the beginning of the phenomenon. The report shows that the phenomenon of macroeconomic stabilization is manifested as follows: first, the producer price index (PPI) declined further year on year, and the growth rate of the chain has been negatively positive, showing signs of recovery in the industrial sector. Second, the dollar valuation of imports and exports fell narrowed, RMB denominated exports for 3 consecutive months of positive growth, the devaluation of RMB to improve the role of trade early. Third, industrial production is steadily rising. Fourth, the manufacturing PMI index was 50.4 in August, reversing the downward trend for several months, and indirectly supporting the recovery judgment of manufacturing. However, the foundation of stabilization is not firm, and the macroeconomic risk is still in the accumulation stage." Fan Zhiyong said. The report pointed out that the basis of macroeconomic recovery instability at least reflected in two aspects: first, the lack of consumer demand, price index negative growth risks still exist. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 1.3% in August, the lowest since 2016. Since 2016 May, the consumer price index has gone down again, which is slightly higher than the critical value of deflation." Report says. Fan Zhiyong research found that, from the breakdown of commodity categories, the decline in consumer price index is mainly due to the continuous rise in pork prices caused by the decline. From a macroeconomic point of view, it may be related to the downward growth rate of currencies since 2016. Since 2016, the growth rate of broad money (M2) has continued to decline, from 14% in the early years to 10.2% in July, which is almost the same as the 2008 financial crisis

人大报告:部分板块和地区经济塌方式下滑风险仍存   人大报告:部分板块和地区经济塌方式下滑风险依然存在   华夏时报记者 陈岩鹏 北京报道   “全国经济进入新常态之后,部分省份国内生产总值出现断崖式下跌。特别是山西和东北等地区GDP名义增长率低于实际增长率,陷入实质性通货紧缩。”中国人民大学经济学院副教授范志勇说,“地方经济增速长期放缓不仅导致居民收入长期收入生长放缓甚至绝对下降,地方政府的收入亦会下降,削弱地方政府实施宏观经济政策的能力。”   9月14日,由中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院、经济学院、中国诚信信用管理股份有限公司联合主办的“中国宏观经济论坛”宏观经济月度数据分析会在人民大学举行。范志勇代表课题组发布了宏观经济月度数据分析报告。   报告指出,经济增长和财政收入面临崩塌现象的地区通常也是在“三去一降一补”工作中任务最重的地区。在此背景下,应该更加关注局部区域财政收入崩塌的问题,特别是基层财政收入突变带来的各种民生问题,建议设立过渡期基层财政救助体系。   国家统计局在此前一天集中公布了一批数据。多项数据表明,中国宏观经济延续了此前初现的企稳现象。   报告称,宏观经济企稳的现象表现在:第一,生产者价格指数(PPI)同比下降幅度进一步收窄,环比增长率有负转正,显示工业部门复苏迹象初现。第二、美元计价的进出口降幅收窄,人民币计价的出口连续3个月同比正增长,人民币贬值对贸易的改善作用初现。第三,工业生产稳中有升。第四,8月份制造业PMI指数达到50.4,扭转了此前连续数月下降的趋势,间接支持制造业复苏判断。   “但是企稳的基础并不牢固,宏观经济风险依然处于累积阶段。”范志勇说。   报告指出,宏观经济复苏基础不稳至少体现在两个方面:一是消费需求不足,价格指数负增长风险依然存在。8月份消费者价格指数(CPI)同比增长率为1.3%,为2016年以来的最低值。   “自从2016年5月份之后,消费者价格指数再次进行下行通道,目前略高于通货紧缩的临界值。”报告称。   范志勇研究分析发现,从细分商品类别来看,消费者价格指数下降主要是由于此前连续上涨的猪肉价格出现下降造成的。从宏观经济角度来看,可能与2016年以来不断下行的货币增长率有关。   2016年以来,广义货币(M2)增速持续下滑,从年初的14.0%下降至7月份10.2%,几乎是2008年金融危机以来的最低点。7月份社会融资规模增速为12.2%,比年初下降0.9个百分点。报告称,广义货币增速跌至危机之后最低点,货币政策有“名松实紧”的迹象。   报告称,中国经济的整体风险依然存在,甚至存在不断积累的可能。具体表现在:实体经济面临不确定陷阱,民间投资增速下滑,货币存量活期化现象假设;流动性供给存在“脱实向虚”风险;板块和地区经济塌方式下滑风险依然存在,地方财政面临较大考验;汇率波动和大宗商品价格不确定性依然存在。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: