Global big trouble made at the end of a very different preganglionic postganglionic-www.zjzs.net

Global big trouble made at the end of A shares before the Spring Festival festival is very different, CITIC Beijing Three River Road Business Department of Yun Qingquan international oil price boom, U.S. stocks last Friday in the banking and energy stocks rose steadily push push, the Dow, S & P, the NASDAQ closed up sharply by 2% and 1.95% respectively, 1.66%, can the three stock index fell 1.43%, the whole week is still 0.81%, 0.59%, three months of continuing down the situation has not yet occurred much change. Looking at the world, last week the strength gap narrowed slightly, but the situation is still no improvement, also with a decline of more than 11% that bear world, France and Germany, are falling for two weeks, the British record of three and a half years low, it is seventh weeks down, the recent situation of weak visible spot at the same time, short-term rebound in the hope and thus also increased. The last two weeks, the international futures market rose more or less the same circumstances. The previous week by breaking the flag shaped bottom line, the dollar index continued to fall last week, the medium-term trend line has been damaged, and the measurement of decline has been exceeded, low falls in the center of the previous platform, recently stabilized may be relatively large. Cotton varieties have been down, CRB index two week star is difficult, although crude oil hit a new low in June 2003 after a frenzied counterattack, but long-term weakness still has not changed, copper, aluminum and nickel also frustrated, down Powei, and gold, silver and lead, zinc and tin are rising around, file selling will gradually appear perhaps, finishing requirements will be more urgent. Recent economic data in the United States is relatively wide. Although the February consumer sentiment index is relatively weak, but better than expected retail sales in January last week, initial jobless claims fell to seven week low, while Yellen in his testimony said they did not think FOMC will face cuts, is not clear whether the interest rate hike in 2016, did not rule out the negative interest rate options, this left markets daydream space. The technical situation, the Dow, NASDAQ and S & P is still not together this year lows, the long-term trend line but also destroyed, its role is supported by evolving into the back pressure, nearly two weeks of decline in 3% to 6%, while Friday rose to under the shadow of last week’s greatly elongated, seemingly under the file support is very strong, but it is empty once ravaged the traces, the current state is not conducive to the week moving average uplink, recently landing more deja vu is to let everyone not lightly bottom; either contraction or widening, this year six weeks of volatility in the last year of average, volatility is likely to tend to narrow, or long and short, around 15800 points and 1840 points, 4300 points will have a fight to overcome 5 weekly and innovation may not be too low. A shares a week before the Spring Festival will be slightly lower after the shock upstream, the 5 day back and turn head, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market rose 0.95% and 2.71% respectively, only small positive in fetal less stable, short-term upside also slightly weakness, phase volume has been refreshed, the surrounding environment is also deteriorating, long leave appropriate active rest are these. First of all, from the amount of energy, the week before week week total turnover shrunk nearly 15% to 1 trillion and 950 billion, nearly 17 weeks in the first discussion

全球大起大落难言底 A股节前节后常不同   ⊙中信建投北京三里河路营业部 云清泉   受国际油价狂飙影响,美股上周五在银行及能源股劲升推动下稳步推高,道指、标普、纳指依次大幅收涨2.00%、1.95%、1.66%,可三大股指全周依然下挫1.43%、0.81%、0.59%,持续三个月下调的局面至今仍未发生多大变化。放眼全球,上周强弱差距略有缩小,但局面仍不见起色,日还以逾11%的跌幅称熊天下,法、德、加都是连续两周下滑,英则创三年半来的新低,意更是持续第七周下行,近期运行状况之弱可见一斑,同时短期反弹的希望也因此而大增。   最近两周,国际期市跌多涨少的情形如出一辙。前周下破旗形底边线后,美元指数上周继续下调,中期上升趋势线也被破坏,而量度跌幅已超额完成,低点还恰好落在前期平台的中心地带,近日企稳可能就相对更大些。粮棉品种相继冲高回落,CRB指数两颗周星也是遇阻整理,原油创2003年6月新低后虽疯狂反扑,可长期弱势仍没有改观,铜、铝又铩羽而归,镍还破位下行,而黄金、白银和铅、锌、锡则连涨四周,上档抛压将逐渐显现,整理要求或许也会更迫切。   美国近日的经济数据相对偏多。虽说2月消费者信心指数初值较为疲软,可1月零售销售却好于预期,上周首次申领失业救济人数又降至七周低点,而耶伦在证词中又表示不认为FOMC近期会面临降息选择,既没有明确表态2016年是否加息,也没有排除负利率选项,这就给市场留下了遐想的空间。就技术现状而言,道指仍没有与标普、纳指一起创今年新低,长期趋势线却同样遭到破坏,其角色都由支撑演变成反压,近两周的跌幅又在3%到6%之间,而周五的劲升则使上周的下影线大大拉长,看似下档支撑十分强劲有力,实则是空方一度肆虐的留痕,周均线目前状态也不利于上行,近期似曾相识的起落方式更是让大家不敢轻言底部;无论收缩还是拓宽,今年六周的波幅都在去年平均水平之上,波动很可能就会倾向于收窄,或者说,多空围绕15800点、1840点、4300点仍将有一番争夺,攻克5周线与创新低可能都不太大。   A股春节前一周略低开后便震荡上行,5日线也失而复得并拐头上移,沪深大盘分别收高0.95%、2.71%,只是胎内小阳有欠平稳,短线上攻也稍显疲态,阶段地量又被刷新,周边环境也趋于恶化,长假回来适当主动休整就更有利些。先从量能来说,节前一周周总成交较前萎缩近15%至1.95万亿,近17周来首次不足两万亿,日均额还不到去年平均的38%,不仅刷新了63周内的地量纪录,而且持续六周下降在历史上也十分罕见,周五的3634亿又是2014年11月20日后除1月7日外最少的,充分反映了观望气氛日渐浓重的事实;深市量能占比现已连续20周、97天超过沪市,意味着蓝筹这一庞大群体长时间处于贫血状态,而颇得资金青睐的却难以对市场产生强有力的推动,且与每日间量变均幅微升不同,沪深单位股指量能骤增93%、75%,说明多方的成果来之不易,隐性放量既表明双方搏杀更加激烈,也预示短期反复仍在所难免。再就大盘而论,两市在节前反复过程中不但没创新低,反而震荡回升并形成一条较标准的通道,同时还摆脱了一个多月来的压力线束缚,只是这一积极变化尚未得到中期走势的确认,且最近周线阴阳交替,胎内阳线通常也属不稳定组合,真正扭转调整态势就需要些时间;由2000年至今的情形判断,节后一周远没有节前一周那么乐观,过去16年春节前后涨跌同向与相反各有8次,节后6次下调却都是节前上涨的,这或许也会加大短期涨跌的变数。也就是说,猴年第一周也许仍难以站上2830点、9900点,下探2700点、9350点甚至年内低点的可能依然存在,但再创新低的能力势必将会日渐衰竭。最后以时间之窗来看,本周是深市去年见顶后的第34周,又是去年低点后的第21周,周三既是该低点后第100天,也是两市去年12月调整以来的第34天,即市场将进入敏感时段,近日变化大概就更重要,微妙的共振也将波及中期局势。   综上,国际期市低调整理仍将延续,全球股市连跌两周后的短期反弹也不容乐观。两市主动休整既利于化解大滑坡的风险,又利于积蓄反攻所需的力量。无论涨跌,本周都可能会放量,权重股能否率先转强、周三前后的变化值得多关注。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: