Category Archives: Miscellaneous

Qianhai Kaiyuan Yang Delong a Manniu established! 大侦探西门全集

Qianhai Kaiyuan Yang Delong: A shares market Manniu established! Sina fund exposure platform: letter Phi lag false propaganda, performance is lower than the same product for a long time, how to buy the fund was pit? Click on [I want to complain], Sina help you expose them! Author: Qianhai Kaiyuan chief economist Yang Delong today to discuss the topic more attractive to the market, manniu! Why is this title, in fact, this year’s confirmation of the market?. After the Spring Festival this year, the market fell to a low of more than 2600 points, we judge the market has bottomed out, decided to end nine months of short period, the position to close to full warehouse, and put forward the "thousand points big bounce point. Now in September, it has rebounded about 500 points from a low point, which has initially validated our judgment on the rebound trend of the market. But now, after that more than half of the market operation, the market basically established Manniu market. Review the history of A shares, A shares have three kinds of animal, "cattle", "bear" and "Slow Bear", but never appeared in fourth kinds of animal "manniu". Why? Because the A stock investors are mainly retail investors, the herd effect of the market is very obvious. Once the bull market occurs, the funds will soon flow into the market, so the market will soon be gone. For example, 06, 07 years of big bull market, two years, the market rose from 998 points to 6124 points. For example, the latest bull market, the market from 2000 points in 2014 July, rose to more than 5100 points in 2015 June, the market bull market is going very fast. And in the bear market, it is often falling faster, this is the "herd effect", when some investors sell stocks, many retail investors to follow the trend of the disk, resulting in a rapid decline. For example, 08 years, the global financial crisis, the market from the highest point of 6124 after less than a year fell 1664 points, can be said to be very fast "bear", and in June 15th last year, the market appeared three stock market crash, there has been a sharp decline, less than 9 months from the highest 5178 points down to 2638 points, is a big decline, and fell very quickly, this is the "cattle" and "bear". Slow bear is often the lack of investor confidence, often "fast bear" after the slow decline process, and slow bear the typical example is 09 years more than 3400 points, has fallen to the lowest point in 2014, 1849 points, fell five years. The market has gradually entered the Manniu market now has gradually entered the market "Manniu", why is there such a situation? The A shares in more than 20 years of history has never seen, it is because of several reasons for this: first, after last year’s stock market crash, many investors still fear, so when the real market bottomed out after a pessimistic market. Especially in the first half of this year, in addition to Qianhai open source fund in the firm to do more to see more, leaving a bearish voice. At this time, the possibility of producing "fast cattle" is very small, because we can not believe the bull market, lack of confidence. Second, the regulators have introduced the theory

前海开源杨德龙:A股慢牛行情确立! 新浪基金曝光台:信披滞后虚假宣传,业绩长期低于同类产品,买基金被坑怎么办?点击【我要投诉】,新浪帮你曝光他们!   作者:前海开源首席经济学家 杨德龙   今天讨论的话题比较吸引人,慢牛行情来了!为什么要起这个标题,其实就是对于今年行情的确认。今年春节之后,大盘跌到了2600多点的低点,我们判断大盘已经见底,决定结束九个月的空仓期,把仓位加到接近满仓,并且提出了“千点大反弹”的观点。现在已经到了9月份,从低点算起已经反弹了大约500点,已经初步验证了我们对市场反弹趋势的判断。而现在,经过这半年多大盘的运行,市场基本确立了慢牛的行情。   回顾A股的历史,A股出现过三种动物,“快牛”、“快熊”和“慢熊”,却从来没出现过第四种动物“慢牛”。为什么?因为A股投资者以散户投资者为主,市场的“羊群效应”非常明显,一旦出现牛市,资金就会很快涌入市场,所以市场行情很快就走完了。比如说,06、07年的大牛市,两年的时间,大盘就从998点涨到了6124点。再比如说最近的这次牛市,大盘从2014年7月份的2000点,涨到了2015年6月份的 5100多点,市场牛市走的是特别快的。而到了熊市,也往往是跌的比较快的,这也是“羊群效应”,当一部分投资者卖股票的时候,很多的散户跟风砸盘,造成了过快的下跌。比方说08年,全球出现了金融危机,大盘从最高6124点经过不到一年的时间跌倒了1664点,可以说是非常快的“快熊”,而在去年6月15日,大盘出现三轮股灾,出现了急剧的下跌,不到9个月的时间从最高点5178点跌到了2638点,跌幅也是很大,并且跌的很快,这就是“快牛”和“快熊”。慢熊往往是投资者信心不足的体现,往往是“快熊”之后缓慢下跌的过程,而慢熊最典型的例子是09年3400多点,一直跌到2014年最低时候的 1849点,跌了五年时间。   市场逐渐步入“慢牛”行情   那么现在市场逐渐进入了“慢牛”的状态,为什么会出现这样的行情?这在A股20多年历史上从来没有出现过,那是因为这么几个原因:   第一, 经历过去年的股灾,很多投资者仍然心有余悸,所以当大盘真正见底之后,市场一片悲观。特别是今年上半年,除了前海开源基金在坚定的做多看多之外,剩下一片看空的声音。这个时候,要产生“快牛”的可能性非常小,因为大家不敢相信牛市,信心不足。   第二, 监管层出台了很多政策,这些政策的主线就是引导投资者从炒题材股、垃圾股,转向蓝筹股投资,进行价值投资。那蓝筹股的行情不像题材股走的那么快,蓝筹股盘子比较大,一般的资金量很难推动“快牛”行情。   第三, 有杠杆,现在的市场和以往的市场一个很大的区别是,现在是一个有杠杆的市场。现在场内可以通过两融进行配资,场外还有一部分渠道进行加杠杆。所以现在是“慢牛”而不是“慢熊”,就是因为有杠杆。去年加杠杆的投资者都亏了大钱,少数人挣到了大钱,但是大多数人是亏了钱的,很多人是心有不甘的。一但市场出现了赚钱的效应,形成了赚钱的趋势之后,那很多去年加杠杆的投资者还会继续加杠杆,所以市场就不会出现09到14年出现的慢慢五年熊市。而很快从急剧下跌到一个修复性上涨,也就是到一个“慢牛”的状态。所以以上就是出现“慢牛”行情的三点原因。   从海外市场看A股—美国市场   接下来从海外市场来看A股,今年五月份我写过一份报告《从海外市场看A股》。因为最聪明的投资者都在海外市场,第一类聪明的投资者,是在进行外汇交易,特别是美元交易;第二类聪明的投资者,在做期货交易,比如说石油、大宗商品;第三类投资者才是炒股票,而第三类投资者中最聪明的投资者是在欧美市场进行交易。第四类才是新兴市场,包括恒指。所以我们要看海外市场的表现,就可以预测A股走势。首先我们来看美股,美股的表现已经超越了基本面,出现了快速上涨,三大股指均创了历史新高,就在最近,纳斯达克指数再次创出历史新高。应该说,美国经济复苏的情况一般,但是美国股市却屡创历史新高。   美股创新高什么原因,就是因为在全球央行不断放水的情况下,各类风险资产的估值都会提升。优质的蓝筹股成为了最好的避险资产,所以美股的蓝筹股行情带动了大盘,其实现在美股创新高,真正创新高的股票并不多,主要集中于优质的蓝筹股上。这个是非常值得A股投资者借鉴的。   海外市场看A股—香港市场   看完美股之后,我们再来看香港市场,香港市场是和美股走的最近的市场,甚至是每天都在跟美股涨。比如说昨天美股上涨,今天港股就跟着高开。昨天美股跌了,今天就跟着港股低开,并且全天基本上是一条横线。港股和美股的关联度是最高的,那么港股在今年出现了快速的反弹,也是在春节前后,恒指跌破19000点大关,A股跌破2600点,当时我提出恒指19000点、上证指数2600多点就是历史大底,现在已经印证了我当时的判断。当时我提出的时候,有很多质疑的声音,我当时提千点反弹,有些人就针锋相对,就提千点下跌,很多人甚至认为会跌破两千点。现在来看孰是孰非就一目了然了。恒指在19000点之后确实出现了触底反弹,现在已经突破了23000点,恒指的走势明显强于A股,但是受美国股市三大股指创新高的带动。   还有一点,就是深港通开通的预期,让很多投资者到港股进行抄底。所以港股的今年的反弹要强于A股。就像我之前提到的,聪明的投资者做美股交易,其次是港股交易。所以做A股的投资者,应该去看美股和港股的走势进行判断,这样正确的概率会远远超过错误的概率。所以我判断下一步A股会迎来逐波上涨的行情,也就是所谓的“慢牛”的行情。   有眼光的“猎人”已经捕捉到“慢牛”迹象   其实很多眼光的投资者发现了这样的情况,我们将他们称之为“猎人”。那么有一下几类“猎人”,第一类就是产业资本,最近对一些上市公司股权进行了增持,甚至是去抢控股权,就是对蓝筹股价值的认可。他们已经嗅到了“慢牛”的气息。第二类投资者,是一些从债券市场或者理财市场出来的低风险资金,这些资金追求绝对回报,他们选择的股票的往往是追求蓝筹股,也就是高股息的股票,这一部分股票引领了大盘的反弹,第三类,是一些有先知先觉的资金开始去入市挖掘机会。除了前海开源在今年春节之后把仓位一次。 加到接近满仓之后呢,很多机构在今年下半年开始加仓。可喜的是现在看多的机构在逐渐增加。很多策略分析师开始看反弹,甚至有著名的私募大佬认为可能到4000点。这样的话,市场反弹的趋势开始形成了,那么”慢牛”的跨度就会比“快牛”要长,“快牛”也就是一年的行情,而“慢牛”我认为会持续到两年以上,甚至可能在“慢牛”之后出现一波大行情。因为在两年这种“慢牛”的行情过程中,我国的经济改革,比如说国企改革和供给侧改革已经出现了一些成果,我国的经济转型出现了一定的成效。一些好的优质的新兴企业开始起来,就可能出现了改革红利,出现业绩的释放,带来一波大行情,不过这是后话了。   “慢牛”行情的投资机会——基金中的基金(Fund of Fund)   我们现在来看目前这种的行情属于“慢牛”的行情,大家可以细细挖掘其中的机会。那么在这种“慢牛”行情中怎么赚钱,我觉得有一种方法,就是买基金中的基金,就是所谓的Fund of Fund,FOF。国内公募基金现在已经有了18年的历史了,基金的品种达到了3000多只,很多人不知道什么时候该买入基金,什么时候应该赎回,也不知道选哪种基金。这就导致了很多基金本身净值是增长的,但是投资者没有赚到钱,甚至亏钱。因为让很多投资者去判断这个基金的高点和低点,甚至选择一个好的基金,是不现实的。那么通过购买基金中的基金,也就是FOF,由专业的投资人进行判断,省去了判断高点和低点的麻烦。   现在证监会已经发了公募的FOF征求意见稿。正式的产品还要等几个月发出来,现在专户的FOF已经逐步发行,最近我刚组建的杨德龙事业部,就是从专户FOF起步,做专户基金中的基金。这是实现策略判断价值的最好的一个途径。我们知道做好FOF最关键的因素就是管理人的资产配置能力,而在国内中就是对A股趋势的把握能力。前海开源在成立三年之中,对大盘的把握是非常精准的。包括14年提出特大牛市,去年5月21日成功高点减仓,以及今年春节之后大胆抄底,可以说对波段的把握是非常准确的。这也使得前海开源的业绩非常突出。   今年上半年,全市场排名第一的基金就是前海开源的金银珠宝,最高涨幅超过了30%多。而在上半年前15名的混合基金中,有6个是前海开源基金的产品,大面积业绩好就体现了对大盘波段的把握比较好。做FOF成功关键就是要在高点的时候替客户赎回股票基金,去配置债券基金或者货币基金,在低点的时候,加大股票基金的配置力度,这样才能真正实现好的收益。所以大家可以关注一下,杨德龙事业部很快就会通过银行私人银行、券商等渠道发行专户FOF,希望以后可以成为客户理财获得收益的最好的手段。   基金成功的关键——优秀的投研能力   有投资者认为,前海开源基金的运行机制比较好,也是业绩比较好的一个重要原因,是正确的。前海开源基金公司有事业部制,实施了股权激励,并且公司执行力比较强,这些都是业绩比较好的重要原因。但是最主要的是体现了前海开源团队卓越的投研资产配置能力。灵活的机制吸引了很多人才加盟,整个投研的能力比较强才能做好业绩。那么在未来的两年的“慢牛”的时期,大家要做好资产的布局。买基金的话可以买业绩比较稳定的基金或者直接买FOF,如果买股票的话,就要买优质的蓝筹股,给我们带来的回报比较稳定的,而且风险比较低,现在我们已经进入了一个拥抱蓝筹的时代,这是毋庸置疑的。大家可以去讨论现在是不是“慢牛”的行情,我认为市场的趋势已经走出来了,已经是底部之后的右侧交易,已经是“慢牛”行情了。 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

Thursday’s strong push to buy 6 shares extremely underestimated 打靶归来原唱

Thursday agencies extremely strong push to buy 6 shares of sina finance: App underestimate the live on-line blogger to tutor you say on the stocks contest points out 60 million new energy in China: the layout of the whole industry chain to develop new growth point of profit forecasts and investment rating: 2016-2018 the company expects EPS 0.59 yuan, 0.70 yuan, 0.84 yuan. Corresponding to 2016 -2018, PE were 19.81, 16.52, 13.90 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating. The company is a leader in regional gas transmission, and has considerable monopoly advantages. In the context of China’s natural gas price change, the overall downward price of gas, policy to encourage consumption of natural gas to improve the proportion of primary energy consumption, the company is optimistic that long-term benefit from the growth of downstream gas demand. China Sea Heavy Duty Truck Corporation: big group small company SOE reform is worth looking forward to investment proposals: the company expects 20161718 years EPS to 0.51 0.62 0.72 yuan (2015 EPS is 0.42 yuan). The current price of 12.75 yuan, corresponding to 20161718 years, 252018 times PE. Consider the company’s performance and valuation are historically low, heavy truck industry upward trend, the company reasonable valuation of 20 times PE in 2017. Considering the company belongs to a large group of small companies, state-owned enterprise reform is expected to enhance the company’s valuation, given the company’s 20% valuation premium. For the first time, "overweight" rating, target price of 15.5 yuan. Soochow securities Shanghai Xinhu Zhongbao change adds a sub Internet financial holding continued to promote the rating and suggestions on Investment: cut earnings forecast and target price: 5 yuan, to maintain overweight rating. The company has a sharp drop in the first half of the performance, although the late settlement company project is expected to achieve normalization, thus driving the company’s performance rebounded, taking into account the actual situation of the company and the industry cycle, we are still cautious about the company’s future profitability, on the other hand, we are optimistic about the company’s second city layout and continuous Internet industry holding time overweight, if we cut our 16-18 EPS: 0.20 0.24 0.25 yuan (original 16-18 forecast EPS:0.25 0.30 0.38 yuan), with reference to comparable companies give 16 years 25 times PE, the corresponding price of 5 yuan, to maintain overweight rating. Shen Wanhongyuan: in the PDH satellite petrochemical industry chain carrier high cycle equity incentive plan highlights performance confidence in the company form and benefit from the PDH high degree of prosperity; PP production is expected to thickening performance of acrylic acid and ester; the bottom recovery form performance safety pad; SAP’s tremendous potential for future growth and laid the foundation; the extension strategy is expected to continue to force, highlighting the share price upside down high safety margin; equity incentive to highlight the performance of confidence. State Securities: Bianco biological tumor treatment platform overweight rich precise medical products line investment advice: continue to firmly optimistic about the company in the field of precision medical forward-looking strategic layout management and strong execution, and constantly consolidate the leading position of CAR-NK (CAR-T precision medical treatment on cell

周四机构强推买入 6股极度低估 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导 你说了算 上炒股大赛分掉6000万   国新能源:全产业链布局开拓新增长点   盈利预测和投资评级:预计公司2016-2018年 EPS 0.59元,0.70元,0.84元。对应2016年-2018年PE 分别是19.81、16.52、13.90倍,维持“增持”评级。公司为地域输气龙头,具有相当的垄断优势。在我国进行天然气价改、整体用气价格下行,政 策鼓励消费天然气提高一次能源消费占比的大背景下,看好公司长期受益于下游用气需求的增长。国海证券   中国重汽:大集团小公司 国企改革值得期待   投资建议:预计公司2016 17 18年EPS至0.51 0.62 0.72元(2015年EPS为0.42元)。当前价12.75元,对应 2016 17 18年25 20 18倍PE。考虑公司业绩和估值均处于历史低位,重卡行业景气向上,公司合理估值为2017年20倍PE。综合考虑公 司属于大集团小公司,国企改革预期提升公司估值,给予公司20%估值溢价。首次给予“增持”评级,目标价15.5元。东吴证券   新湖中宝:上海旧改再添一子 互联网金控持续推进   投资评级与建议:下调盈利预测,目标价:5.0元,维持增持评级。公司上半年业绩有一定幅度的下滑,虽然后期公司项目结算有望实现正常化,从而带动公司 业绩反弹,考虑到行业周期和公司实际情况,我们仍谨慎对待公司未来的盈利能力,另一方面我们看好公司一二线城市的持续布局和互联网金控主业的不断加码,综 上我们下调公司16-18年EPS为:0.20 0.24 0.25元(原来16-18预测EPS:0.25 0.30 0.38元),参考可比公司给予 16年25倍PE,对应股价5.0元,维持增持评级。申万宏源   卫星石化:PDH处于高景气周期 股权激励方案凸显业绩信心   公司全产业链航母打造成型,受益于PDH高景气度;PP投产有望增厚业绩;丙烯酸及酯谷底复苏形成业绩安全垫;SAP潜力巨大奠定未来增长基础;外延战略有望持续发力,股价倒挂凸显高安全边际;股权激励凸显业绩信心。国金证券   安科生物:肿瘤治疗平台加码 丰富精准医疗产品线   投资建议:继续坚定看好公司在精准医疗领域前瞻性战略布局和管理层强有力的执行力,不断巩固精准医疗龙头地位(CAR-T CAR-NK细胞治疗领军企 业博生吉+法医DNA检测龙头中德美联+PD-1抗体产品线),同时明星产品生长激素保持35%以上高增长,维持“强烈推荐”评级。考虑中德美联并表影响 (已于6月底完成工商变更)以及限制性股票授予,我们预测公司2016-2018年EPS分别为0.41、0.55、0.71元。平安证券   东方网力:控股股东及部分董事、高管增持 看好公司高成长性   盈利预测:我们预计2016-2018年公司实现归属母公司净利润分别为4.14、5.90、7.64亿元,EPS分别为0.51、0.73、0.95 元,对应PE分别为46、32、25倍。我们看好公司通过内生加外延式拓展,增强核心竞争力,并积极培育新的利润增长点,业绩高成长可期。我们维持公司 “推荐”评级。华鑫证券 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

Bocom international railway Chinese maintain buy rating 悠米解霸

Bocom International: Chinese railway construction funds to maintain a buy rating to thousands of thousands of hot column stocks on diagnosis of the latest rating simulated trading client sina finance App: Live on-line blogger to tutor Sina Hong Kong APP: real time market exclusive reference stocks also worth the investment? What’s the problem? Where is the future? Sina Hong Kong stocks launched "Hong Kong stocks are not attractive" big discussion, with a rational and constructive attitude, welcome to pay attention to Hong Kong stocks, people concerned about the capital market, together with Hong Kong stocks for advice and suggestions, and conspiracy of Hong Kong stock market tomorrow. Please to hkstock_biz@sina. The latest news: China railway Limited by Share Ltd (CRCC) released 3Q16 operating data, data show the value of the contract rose sharply. Analysis: the first nine months of 2016, the overall value of the contract (including real estate development) rose 22% to 679 billion yuan, especially the capital value to 569 billion yuan, up 24.4% year-on-year, while real estate development contract rose 51.2% to 34 billion 100 million yuan. In the construction of railway engineering, since the beginning of only an 0.96% to 1636 billion yuan; highway engineering only rose 0.59% to 1135 billion yuan, while the other (MTR) rose 60.0% to 2919 billion yuan. 3Q16 growth momentum remains strong. Highway and railway projects grew slowly year by year, largely due to higher base numbers in 2015. According to the quarterly, 3Q16 highway and railway engineering contract value continues to rise. Real estate development is the sector that we have been emphasizing in 2016 to substantially increase the profitability of the company, and the business is still in good shape. Contract sales increased by 51.2% in the first 9 months of 2016 compared with an increase of 28.3% over the same period last year. The average price of real estate development contract sales has increased, we believe that the positive impact, the reason is that the average price rise should enhance the real estate development sales profits. At the same time, China Railway Construction Co., Ltd. is speeding up the construction of real estate. 3Q16 has started to rise to 1 million 670 thousand square meters, almost equivalent to the area of 1H16. Recommendation: we are still optimistic about the progress of the new contract value this year and the performance since the beginning of this year. In 2016, the target contract value was RMB 852 billion 700 million yuan. We believe that the amount of the target has reached 79.6% of the target since the beginning of the year, so the company can achieve the target set. We maintain bid rating and target price of HK $11.1. (both) go into Sina Finance shares

交银国际:维持中国铁建买入评级 热点栏目 资金流向 千股千评 个股诊断 最新评级 模拟交易 客户端 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导 新浪港股APP:实时行情 独家内参   港股还值不值得投资?出现了什么问题?未来出路在哪里?新浪港股发起“港股还有没有吸引力”大讨论,以理性、建设性的态度,欢迎关注港股、关注资本市场的人士,一起为港股建言献策,共谋港股市场的明天。来稿请至hkstock_biz@sina 。   最新消息:   中国铁建股份有限公司(中铁建)公布 3Q16 营运数据,数据显示合同价值大幅上升。   分析:   2016 年首九个月,整体合同价值(包括房地产发展)上升 22.0%至人民币 6,790亿元,尤其是基建价值,同比上升 24.4%至人民币 5,690 亿元,而房地产发展合同则同比上升 51.2%至人民币 341 亿元。   在基建工程当中,年初至今的铁路工程仅同比微升 0.96%至人民币 1,636 亿元;高速公路工程仅同比上升 0.59%至人民币 1,135 亿元,而其他(包括地铁)则同比上升 60.0%至人民币 2,919 亿元。   3Q16 全线增长势头仍然强劲。高速公路和铁路工程同比增长缓慢,大致上是由于 2015 年基数较高所致。按季度计,3Q16 的高速公路和铁路工程合同价值持续上升。   房地产发展是我们一直强调将于 2016 年大幅提高公司盈利的版块,业务进度仍然良好。2016 年首 9 个月的合同销售同比增加 51.2%,而合同面积则同比增加 28.3%。   房地产发展合同销售的平均价有所上升,我们认为影响正面,原因是平均价上升理应提升房地产发展的销售利润。   同时,中铁建正在加快房地产建设。3Q16 已开工面积升至 167 万平方米,几乎相当于 1H16 的面积。   推荐建议:   我们仍然对本季新签合同价值的进度和年初至今的表现感到乐观。2016 年目标合同价值为人民币 8,527 亿元,我们认为,年初至今的金额已达到目标的79.6%,故公司可实现所订下的目标。   我们维持买入评级和目标价 11.1 港元。(双双) 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

UBS expects 2500-3000 billion euro denominated bank loan default risk 识汝不识丁

UBS expects: 2500-3000 billion euro denominated bank loan default risk FX168 hearing on Thursday (February 25th) UBS (UBS) analyst said, is expected to have 2500 to 300 billion euro denominated bank loans may default in the credit cycle, due to the global slowdown in demand conditions, energy, metals and mining enterprises by commodity prices hit. On Tuesday (February 23rd), Standard Chartered Bank (SCB) announced the first loss of annual performance since 1989, due to bad loans jumped in 2015. But compared with US banks, Europe has a lower risk of bad loans. UBS analysts estimate that $1 trillion speculative level debt faces higher default risks, including junk bonds, leveraged loans, credit lines, and so on. Earlier this week, JP Morgan (JP Morgan) said it would increase its provision for $500 million due to expected energy loan losses. Analysts say the default rate on speculative bonds in the U.S. natural resources industry continues to rise. UBS strategist Matthew Mish and Stephen Caprio said in the research report, "even if commodity prices rebound, we expect the future default rate is still high."." Enter Sina Financial shares] discussion

瑞银集团:预计2500-3000亿欧元计价银行贷款有违约之虞   FX168讯 周四(2月25日)瑞银集团(UBS)分析师称,预计有2500至3000亿欧元计价的银行贷款可能在当前信贷周期违约,因在全球需求放缓情况下,能源、金属和矿业企业受到大宗商品价格重创的影响。   周二(2月23日)渣打银行(SCB)公布,2015年出现1989年以来年度业绩首次亏损,因不良贷款跳增。   但相较于美国银行业者,欧洲的不良贷款风险相对较低。   瑞银分析师估计,有1万亿美元的投机级债务面临较高的违约风险,其中包括包括垃圾债券、杠杆贷款、信用额度等。   本周稍早,摩根大通(JP Morgan)称增加5亿美元拨备,因预期能源贷款损失。   分析师称,美国自然资源行业投机级债券违约率持续上升。   瑞银策略师Matthew Mish和Stephen Caprio在研究报告中称,“即使大宗商品价格反弹,我们预计未来违约率仍较高。” 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: